DeSart model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 38.4% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, whereas Trump will win 61.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana has Trump at 57.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.2 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.7% in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 13.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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