DeSart model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 18.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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