DeSart model in Florida: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump in Florida.

In Florida, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.6%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 1.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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