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DeSart model in California: Clinton with clear lead

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 59.9% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will win 40.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 56.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in California. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.3 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in California, which is 0.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 7.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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