DeSart model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will receive 34.8% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will end up with 65.2%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.6%. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 8.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.2 percentage points higher.