The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 42.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.3%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they can contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Arizona has Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.