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DeSart model in Arizona: Trump with clear lead


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 42.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.3%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they can contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arizona has Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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