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DeSart model in Alaska: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.9% for Clinton and 60.1% for Trump in Alaska.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Alaska econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 64.6%. This value is 4.5 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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