DeSart model in Alabama: Trump with very clear lead

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 35.8% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will win 64.2%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alabama has Trump at 59.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.9 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Alabama, which is 4.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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