DeSart model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Illinois
The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump in Illinois.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 54.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.