DeSart model: Clinton with clear lead in New Jersey

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 56.9% for Clinton and 43.2% for Trump in New Jersey.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 57.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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