The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 36.7% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, while Trump will win 63.3%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Tennessee sees Trump at 57.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 7.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.1% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 15.3 percentage points higher.