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DeSart model: Clinton in South Dakota trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will collect 37.9% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, whereas Trump will win 62.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of South Dakota econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.5%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in South Dakota, which is 2.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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