DeSart model: Clinton in North Dakota trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 37.0% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, while Trump will win 63.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of North Dakota econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.4%. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in North Dakota, which is 3.4 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 15.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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