DeSart model: Clinton in Indiana trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will receive 42.1% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, while Trump will end up with 57.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Indiana has Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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