DeSart model: Clinton in Idaho trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.4% for Clinton and 69.6% for Trump in Idaho.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can contain substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 68.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Idaho. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 21.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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