Connecticut: Sustained lead for Clinton in recent Quinnipiac poll
Results of a new poll carried out by Quinnipiac were released. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 1 to June 5. A total of 1330 registered voters responded. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Connecticut polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.