Connecticut: New Emerson poll has Trump behind by 8 points
By Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were circulated on August 1. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 10 to April 11 among 1043 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 54.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Connecticut. In comparison to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. The results are consistent with the combined forecast from PollyVote for the two-party vote share in Connecticut. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
