PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 22 to June 23 with 980 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.5%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.