NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 5 to July 11. A total of 794 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.5 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado sees Clinton at 54.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in Colorado. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.