PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 22 to June 23, among a random sample of 691 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Arizona polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 49.7%. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.7 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.