The Time-for-change model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.3%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 51.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote, which is 3.3 percentage points below the results of the Time-for-change model.