Latest Time-for-change model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie

The Time-for-change model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.3%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 51.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote, which is 3.3 percentage points below the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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