New Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump virtually tied

The Electoral-cycle model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 51.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote, which is 3.4 percentage points below the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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