Results of a new national poll conducted by Rasmussen were announced on August 1. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Rasmussen poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 26 to July 27 among 1000 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 1.0 percentage point higher than her corresponding numbers in the Rasmussen poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.