On August 1, Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
The results show that 40.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between July 25 and July 29. The sample size was 1050 participants. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Reuters poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.