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Primary model shows Trump in the lead


The Primary model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 51.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 4.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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