The Primary model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton and 52.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 51.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 4.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.0%.