New Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied

The Keys to the White House model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote, which is 0.5 percentage points above the results of the Keys to the White House model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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