Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 48.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to her numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.1 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results are consistent with the combined forecast from PollyVote for the national two-party vote share.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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