On August 1, LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
The results show that 42.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 24 and July 30. The sample size was 2188 participants. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.1 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 48.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.8 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the LA Times poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.3 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.