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LA Times poll: Trump with 4 points lead


On August 1, LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

LA Times poll results




The results show that 42.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between July 24 and July 30. The sample size was 2188 participants. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.1 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

An average of recent polls has Trump at 48.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.8 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the LA Times poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.3 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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