Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 53.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to her numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.5 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results were accurately predicted by the forecast from PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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