Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin

The Issue-index model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, don't focus too much on the results of a single index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.5%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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