Fair model shows Trump in the lead

The Fair model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton and 56.0% for Trump. In comparison, on May 1, Clinton was predicted to end up with 45.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 51.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 4.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 8.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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