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Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest 538 (polls-plus) model


The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%. In comparison, on July 29, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.0%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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