Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest DeSart model

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will receive 49.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 50.5%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 51.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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