PollyVote today predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend over the past 5 days, in which she gained an additional 0.2 percentage points.
Considering previous election years, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's forecasts since 2004 democrat candidate John Kerry and republican candidate George W. Bush were in the running.
Looking at Polly's components
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be the next U.S. President: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.1%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are prediction markets with a vote share of 52.2% for Clinton. With a vote share of 48.9% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton loses 1.9 percentage points.
With 53.5% in index models the vote share for the Democrats is quite low in comparison to previous election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.3% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.