Bio-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Bio-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results vs. other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.5%. This value is 5.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Bio-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 6.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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