The Big-issue model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump winning 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be regarded with caution, as they may include large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 46.5%. This value is 3.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Big-issue model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.0%.