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Big-issue index model: Clinton tied with Trump


The Big-issue model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump winning 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be regarded with caution, as they may include large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 46.5%. This value is 3.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Big-issue model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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