Results of a new national poll conducted by PPP were spread on July 31. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to July 30 with 1276 respondents. The sampling error is +/-2.7 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump. To compare: Only 52.2% was obtained by Clinton in the PPP poll on June 30, for Trump this result was 47.8%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.