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Consensus among component methods about election outcome


The combined PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Prediction markets predict a vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The expert surveys present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 54.2% of the vote.

A trend in the expectation polls, the aggregated polls and the expert surveys in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The expert surveys have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 1.9 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 56 days.

With 52.0% in prediction markets the vote share for the Democrats is quite high in comparison to past election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, prediction markets expected a vote share of 52.6% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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