In the latest update, Polly the parrot concludes that Clinton will end up with 52.0% of the national two-party vote, compared to 48.0% for Trump. For the Democrats this is the best PollyVote forecast (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat Barack Obama and republican John McCain ran for presidency 2008.
This is what Polly's components expect
There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Prediction markets predict a vote share of 51.8% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 54.2% the expert surveys deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton loses 2.1 percentage points.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably low with 51.4% in aggregated polls. Since 2004 George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 51.1% for Democratic candidate John Kerry, in the end he reached 48.8%.