On July 30, RABA Research released the results of a new national poll conducted on behalf of RABA Research, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
RABA Research poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was conducted from July 29 to July 29 with 956 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 59.7% for Clinton and 40.3% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to her numbers in the RABA Research poll Clinton's poll average is 8.3 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 7.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.