Clinton leads, according to today’s PollyVote forecast
By PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton and 48.1% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 12 days, in which she lost 0.7 percentage points.
For the Democrats this is the best PollyVote prediction (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat Barack Obama and republican John McCain ran against each other 2008.
Looking at the component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.9%.
Prediction markets predict a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.1% of the vote.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the polls. Clinton loses 2.6 percentage points.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is notably low with 50.6% in aggregated polls. Since 2000 they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, combined polls expected a vote share of 46.1% for democrat candidate, in the end he reached 53.7%.
