On July 28, Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27. A total of 500 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This margin is within the poll’s error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll’s error margin.