Polly the parrot today predicts a national two-party vote share of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. For the last 11 days, Polly's forecast been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.7 percentage points.
This is what the components predict
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five forecast a victory for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expectation polls with a vote share of 51.7% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.
Trump gained 2.8 percentage point in the polls compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a change this large.