Wyoming: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will garner 32.3% of the two-party vote share in Wyoming, while Trump will end up with 67.7%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to gain only 30.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Wyoming has Trump at 71.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.4 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 70.8% in Wyoming. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 19.6 percentage points higher.