The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to achieve 53.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Washington sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points higher.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points higher.