The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to gain only 53.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Vermont econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 60.4%. This value is 6.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.2% of the two-party vote in Vermont, which is 10.0 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points higher.