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Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump in Utah. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 33.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 71.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.4% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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