Trump with huge advantage in recent ARG poll
Results of a new national poll conducted by ARG and sponsored by ARG were announced on July 26. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
ARG poll results
According to the results, 7.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 77.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from July 17 to July 20, among a random sample of 990 participants.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 8.3% for Clinton and 91.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 49.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the ARG poll Trump's poll average is 42.1 percentage points worse.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 43.6 points below his polling numbers.