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Ohio: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Jerome model


The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 48.7%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 50.4% of the vote.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Ohio econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.2% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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