The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 48.7%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 50.4% of the vote.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Ohio econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.2% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points lower.