New CBS poll shows Trump with 9-point lead
By Results of a new national poll administered by CBS and sponsored by CBS were published on July 26. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
CBS poll results
Of those who responded, 31.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via phone from July 22 to July 24 among 1118 participants.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump. To compare: 49.4% was gained by Clinton in the CBS poll on July 25, for Trump this result was only 50.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 4.8 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the CBS poll.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 6.3 points below his polling numbers.
